Until now, the safe-haven currencies have been JPY, CHF and USD. The ongoing Russian invasion and the risk-off mode associated with it could have given birth to a new safe haven currency – the Australian dollar (and the New Zealand dollar as well).
The Australian dollar is a commodity currency, and we all know that commodities are currently flying through the roof. And, Australia is very far from any potential conflict. And in this case, we can see an actual pattern.
The euro is much weaker than the GBP, the German stock exchange is weaker than the American one, and well, the Polish currency and stock exchange are pretty much being wrecked.
Quite surprisingly, AUD is even stronger than CHF – the real benchmark for safe-havens.
AUD/CHF - Technical View
Last week, the AUD/CHF pair managed to create a significant, long-term buy signal. The buy signal comes from the fact that the price broke the upper line of the flag formation (blue). The flag was a big bearish correction of a post-covid recovery.
The new week also starts on the front foot. The price is currently breaking the 23.6% Fibonacci, which opens the way towards the top from February 2021.
As for the supports, we have plenty of them. First of all, the upper line of the flag, then we have one on the 0.667 and then, the red mid-term up trendline, which supports the price in 2022.
With all that, the sentiment on AUD/CHF is positive, and a bearish reversal would be a huge surprise.
