In our research as we start a new week, there is a good chance that:
- Wheat Futures have bottomed.
- Natural gas futures bottomed.
- Sugar Futures bottomed.
And while gold and silver futures are correcting, we are still bullish in the longer term.
We do not expect the precious metals to peak until 2025-2026.
On another note, Bitcoin, another commodity, should it clear through 68k we see a test of the highs at least.
And the almighty US dollar appears to have peaked already.
For now, though, let us focus on natural gas and the illustrated daily futures chart.
This is a chart of the natural gas May 2024 contract.
While future months have traded above their 50-daily moving averages (blue line), the May contract has yet to clear it.
As natural gas futures go, we want to see the front month leading to fully support the case for a potential bottom.
As many of you trade the ETF UNG, it is very important to always base any trade-in UNG on what the underlying contract is doing.
In the case of May futures, 1.85 is the price to trade above.
As far as wheat and sugar, the same rule applies.
Make sure you look at the spot underlying futures before buying the corresponding ETFs.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) 480 should be bottom-line support but a move over 500 could give a bounce
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 192 support
- Dow (DIA) 372 the January low
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 411 the January 6-month calendar range low and support
- Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
- Semiconductors (SMH) 204 now resistance with support at 175
- Transportation (IYT) 67 pivotal with 65 bigger support
- Biotechnology (IBB) 128 pivotal 123 support
- Retail (XRT) 71.50 area needs to hold
- iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 75.50 the 200 DMA-through 76.50 relief!