Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

President Obama, in his surprise visit to Kabul marking the one-year anniversary of the death of Osama bin Laden, told U.S. service members that there was “light on the horizon because of the sacrifices you have made,” signaling the end of the war, as he also signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement with President Hamid Karzai that extends the U.S. commitment beyond the withdrawal of combat troops next year.

In his address to the people back home from Bagram Air Base, Obama said:

“I will not keep Americans in harm’s way a single day longer than is absolutely required for our national security. But we must finish the job we started in Afghanistan, and end this war responsibly.”

The thing is the deal struck by Obama and Karzai clearly keeps the door open for American troops, most likely special forces, to stay beyond 2014, plus the United States will be responsible for the lion’s share of the estimated cost of $4 billion a year to fund and train Afghanistan’s military.

What I don’t get is how we didn’t negotiate to maintain a permanent base there and instead we will share space with the Afghan military, which, almost all would agree, has been a huge issue with the number of ‘insider’ attacks on U.S. forces, such as below.

The agreement also doesn’t permit the U.S. to launch attacks from Afghan soil on neighboring countries, i.e., Pakistan. Not sure how this is going to be worked out.

As for Obama’s trip, it was certainly telling that the president had to sneak in in the dead of night, give his address to the American people at 4:00 a.m. local time, and then just hours after he left, the Taliban launched attacks in Kabul that killed seven.

Earlier in the week, an Afghan soldier fatally shot an American service member, while three Americans soldiers were killed in a bomb attack. In the first instance, the Afghan opened fire with a machine gun from atop a building, also killing an interpreter before he was gunned down. For the month of April, 41 Americans were killed.

Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post

“There were two reasons for President Obama to deliver a speech on the anniversary of the killing of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and sign an accord with the Afghan government for ongoing cooperation after U.S. troops leave. The first, obviously, is to grab some more of the spotlight. (Had he not ridiculously overplayed his hand by insinuating Mitt Romney would not have killed bin Laden, no one would have thought much of it.) But the second reason and the substance of the speech were more objectionable.

“Obama would have us believe with bin Laden dead we can now just ‘end’ the war. He used ‘end’ a lot in the speech. He didn’t say ‘win’ or ‘victory.’ And in fact he redefined his own mission, now saying we were only concerned about defeating al-Qaeda. His determination to root out the Taliban, which he reiterated at the onset of his Afghan surge? Airbrushed out of history.

“In 2009 he told the cadets at West Point: ‘We must deny al-Qaeda a safe haven. We must reverse the Taliban’s momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the government. And we must strengthen the capacity of Afghanistan’s security forces and government so that they can take lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s future…[We] will pursue a military strategy that will break the Taliban’s momentum and increase Afghanistan’s capacity over the next 18 months.’

“Today his goals had been trimmed. ‘To build a country in America’s image, or to eradicate every vestige of the Taliban’ would ‘require many more years, many more dollars, and most importantly, many more American lives,’ he told us. No mention made of the other terrorist networks on the prowl in Afghanistan.

“His emphasis was on bringing troops home, getting out. He tried to have it both ways, insisting we were behaving responsibly, but do our enemies believe that? Do our allies, nervously listening to him confirm we are ‘tired of war’?”

Iran: Even I have to concede that recent developments certainly don’t foretell an imminent strike on Iran’s nuclear program as I have been predicting since fall of last year. At the time I felt politics would play a big role, that President Obama, given hard evidence, would strike, alone or in conjunction with Israel, thus giving him time to clean it up before the election. My thought process was that the last thing the Obama campaign would want is Iran testing a nuclear device in September or October. His defeat would thus be ensured.

So now there is either a giant disinformation campaign underway, or there will be no attack anytime soon because we suddenly have an Israeli election coming up. Originally slated for next year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to take advantage of his improved political standing in the country to pick up some more seats in the Knesset, so a vote looks to be coming in September. Unless some new evidence comes up then, there’s no way Netanyahu would strike during his own election campaign. Nor, assuming a big victory, would it make sense to then strike right before Americans go to the polls.

And with the second round of talks between the P5+1 and Iran slated for May 23 in Baghdad, the International Atomic Energy Agency is meeting with Iran in Vienna on May 14-15. In December, the IAEA said Iran’s nuclear activities were relevant to a nuclear weapons program, but Iran has thus far refused to answer the IAEA’s questions, or allowed access to some disputed sites since then. From the tone of the talk coming out of Iran lately, it would seem the IAEA won’t be totally disappointed in Vienna.

After all, sanctions have had an impact. Even India’s top oil importers announced they would reduce their shipments from Iran by 15% as it seems Iran’s oil output is at its lowest level in 20 years. Iran has every incentive to give in to the P5+1 just enough to force the West, specifically the EU, to pull back its boycott of Iranian crude starting July 1. United States sanctions focusing on Iran’s central bank are to take effect June 28.

Of course now you’ve seen how President Obama doesn’t want Iran being a big campaign issue for him at this late stage. He’ll deal with it, if necessary, in his next term, or leave it for Romney.

So that’s the conventional wisdom for this week, not that I am in the least bit happy about it. We now wait to see how things develop in Vienna and Baghdad. There’s no reason to believe Iran won’t continue to brilliantly employ its delay game, assuming as part of the bargain that they get some sanctions lifted in return.

But lest we get too giddy over some short-term good feelings, should they develop, understand that Iran’s deputy foreign minister said this week that while his nation is optimistic over the next round of talks:

“There should be no doubt that the great nation of Iran…will never abandon exercising its inalienable right to peaceful use of nuclear energy and technology.”

Another official in the foreign ministry told the Los Angeles Times:

“One thing I can tell you for sure is that Iran will never, ever close down the Fordow nuclear site,” referring to the underground enrichment plant near Qom.

A close aide to Ayatollah Khamenei also seemed to put a kibosh on the talk of IAEA inspectors being allowed to make snap visits to nuclear sites, saying: “The inspectors of IAEA turned out to be spies and our nuclear scientists were exposed and some of them assassinated.”

John Bolton / Wall Street Journal…on the tie-in between Iran and Syria…

“Mr. Obama knows that if he confronts Iran directly in Syria, any chance will disappear for a negotiated settlement to Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. While he should have long ago understood that diplomacy will never persuade Iran to renounce its objective of becoming a nuclear power, he has not. So despite Iran’s obvious role (backed by Russia and China) in defending Assad’s brutality, the president cannot bring himself to admit his Iran policy’s futility. And Mr. Obama is entirely unwilling to risk foreign adventures that might imperil his re-election.”

Syria: Among the Syrian government’s moves this week was the storming of a university dorm at Aleppo, killing at least seven students. One British-based rights group claims at least 95 have been killed and hundreds of houses destroyed during ceasefire negotiations. Syrian rebels apparently killed 15 members of the security forces in an ambush. Russia wants the U.N. to pay attention to violations of the Annan plan on all sides.

Egypt: At least 11 were killed in Cairo (one report I read put the toll at 20) during protests against military rule and the exclusion of a Salafist presidential candidate. Protesters were killed by unidentified assailants and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) came under fire for not protecting the protesters. Mohamed El Baradei, Nobel prize-winner and former presidential candidate, said: “Egypt is going down the drain.”
Editorial / Washington Post

“It’s been five weeks since the Obama administration granted Egypt its full $1.3 billion in annual military aid despite its government’s failure to meet conditions set by Congress for advancing democracy. In granting a waiver on national security grounds, administration officials argued that continuing the funding was more likely to encourage cooperation with the United States and progress on human rights than a cutoff would.

“As it turns out, the administration was wrong. In a number of tangible ways, U.S.-Egyptian relations and the military’s treatment of civil society have deteriorated since the waiver was issued March 23. The threat to nongovernmental organizations, whose prosecution triggered the threat of an aid suspension, has worsened. Conditions for U.S.-backed pro-democracy groups elsewhere in the Middle East have deteriorated as other governments have observed Egypt’s ability to crack down with impunity….

“U.S. officials argued that an aid cutoff might cause a dangerous political backlash in Cairo. But since the waiver was issued, Egypt’s government-owned press, which is controlled by the military’s intelligence agency, has continued a toxic campaign of anti-Americanism. The State Department also argued that aid should continue because Egypt had stuck to the 1979 Camp David agreements with Israel. But after the waiver, the government unilaterally canceled a deal under which it was supplying Israel with gas.”

Separately, Israel announced it was reinforcing its 150-mile border with Egypt, including 30,000 troops and hundreds of tanks. In response, Egypt staged massive exercises.

It was in 1979 that the Camp David accords led to Israel’s withdrawal from the Sinai. Now, tensions between the two are as bad as they’ve been in the 33 years since.

North Korea: By all indications, a nuclear test could occur any day now. The White House has warned players in the region it is imminent. And then North Korea will grab the top slot again.

China: What a freakin’ mess, the case of blind Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng. I’m sorry that I’ll offend many of you with the following statement, but the heck with him. I’m also not of the belief that it was so courageous to escape from house arrest when he was obviously putting his loved ones, let alone those aiding his escape, at great risk. I just have a big problem with this.

But this is yet another classic case of my dictum “wait 24 hours.” And so as I write, the latest is that Chen will be allowed to go to the U.S. to study, accompanied by his wife and kids, but we are waiting to see if the Chinese government follows through on the commitment.

France: The sole debate between President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Francois Hollande took place on Wednesday and the president did not land the decisive blow he needed to beat back Hollande’s challenge. All the polls show Hollande winning Sunday’s run-off, though one poll had the margin down to six points, 53-47 (and as I go to post, the last data before the ballot has it at only four points).

So the two challengers traded insults for 170 minutes, as Hollande talked up the lack of growth, while Sarkozy said, “Growth, yes, but not at the expense of cutting debt and deficit.”

When Sarkozy blamed the financial crisis for adding $658 billion to France’s national debt, Hollande responded, “It’s always someone else’s fault, you always find someone else to blame.”

Hollande, in turn, said he wanted to be a “normal president,” an attack on Sarkozy’s character, but Sarkozy countered, “Your normality is not commensurate with the task at hand. Being normal was not what defined presidents such as De Gaulle and Mitterrand.”

Sarkozy repeatedly told Hollande, “You are lying,” and at the end, when Hollande accused the president of appointing cronies to high places, Sarkozy snapped: “You little slanderer.”

Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen gave her annual May Day speech in Paris and refused to endorse either candidate, saying she would “vote blank,” spoiling her ballot as a protest, while telling her supporters to vote their conscience. Le Pen portrayed both candidates as traitors to France. “First they treated us as fascists and xenophobes and then, when you voted, we became people whom they wanted to talk to,” she told the crowd of 10,000.

“On May 6 it is not a president who is to be elected, but a simple employee of the European Central Bank, a Brussels sub-controller of finance, charged with applying the Commission’s decisions without question.”

Le Pen’s action, while expected, nonetheless is a blow to Sarkozy who has been courting her supporters. She will now focus on parliamentary elections slated for June as she attempts to turn the National Front into a legitimate opposition party.

Ukraine: The daughter of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has called on President Viktor Yanukovych to release her mother and other alleged political prisoners in order to save the Euro 2012 football tournament, slated for Ukraine and beginning June 8.

The Yanukovych government is under immense pressure as both the Netherlands and Austria announced they would not travel to the Euro unless Tymoshenko’s conditions improved after reports she was roughed up in jail. German Chancellor Merkel is considering a similar boycott, Germany having offered to host the event on short notice. Germany also said it would block a pending EU-Ukraine trade deal if Kiev is seen ignoring the rule of law.

This goes back to last October when Tymoshenko was jailed for seven years on disputed charges in a move that was seen by many to be nothing more than revenge on the part of her rival, Yanukovych. But the situation escalated when the former leader said she had been assaulted on April 20 and wants to be treated for her back pain.

Russia: The nation’s defense minister warned that talks on the U.S.-led NATO missile defense plan in Europe are “close to a dead end.” Washington insists the plan is aimed at deflecting a potential Iranian attack, while Moscow continues to voice concerns it will eventually be powerful enough to undermine Russia’s nuclear deterrent. NATO wants to cooperate with Russia, but will not run it jointly as Moscow wants. The Kremlin also insists Washington issue a guarantee the plan is not aimed at Russia or it will retaliate, such as targeting U.S. missile defense systems in Europe. “A decision to use destructive force pre-emptively will be taken in if the situation worsens,” according to Gen. Nikolai Makarov, head of the Russian General Staff.

Separately, Vladimir Putin takes the presidential oath of office again on Monday. You know how I’ve been saying for a long time that Putin won’t survive the year? Vladimir Ryzhkov, a State Duma deputy from 1993 to 2007, penned a piece in the Moscow Times titled “Why Putin’s Days Are Numbered,” citing five key areas “that will ultimately prove the undoing of Putin’s autocracy.”

Electoral fraud and manipulation, corruption, judicial and police abuse, censorship and propaganda in the state-controlled media, and destruction of historical sites.

“The only way Putin knows how to govern is by falsifying and manipulating elections, buying the loyalty of corrupt officials, keeping the courts obedient and controlling the main media outlets. But that is the very model of government that a growing and powerful civil society finds completely unacceptable. The future belongs to them.”

It’s about Russia’s growing middle class, one-third of Russia’s adult population and 50% of the population in major cities. They demand fair elections, political pluralism and political reforms.

One other item. Russia’s birth rate rose 6.5% in the first three months of this year over the same period in 2011, while the death rate fell 3.3%, though, importantly, the number of deaths, 486,600, exceeded the number of births, 450,000, as it has annually for more than a decade…not good.

Nigeria: At least 25 were killed in attacks on Christian places of worship in Nigeria last Sunday. [There was also an attack on Christian worshippers in Kenya the same day, killing one and injuring 15.]