ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 24 (KCc3)

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USDA, May 10th Guatemala: Post forecasts that production in MY 2024/2025 will slightly decrease to 3.25 million 60-kg bags, down from the MY2023/2024 estimate of 3.26 million 60-kg bags. Production for MY2022/2023 closed at 3.26 million 60-kg bags but has been revised down 6 percent from previous Post estimate. The reduction in the estimate is due to various factors, with the extended El Niño year being one of the main factors negatively impacting the 2023/2024 harvest. Although it has been a relatively dry harvest season, rust is present in farms that are not well managed. The coffee borer continues to be an important pest as mature coffee falls to the ground and cannot be harvested given the permanent lack of labor (migration driven) affecting Guatemalan agriculture.

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Viriato Magalhaes 5 hours ago

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Production for 23/24 closed at 3.26 ***. Nothing dramatic. But if to assume revision of 175kb and 10kb reduction as one figure of 185kb (as it has to be applied to a balance), it will be almost 200kb of reduction. What else ? 3.25mb of projected for 24/25 is a bit less than 3.263mb for 22/23 or let's say no growth. While saying in words 3.25mb (A+R) for 24/25, in the final table the figure is 3.258mb :). Nothing special, but rounded 3.258 would be 3.26 by regular rule and would mean that between revised and projected figures there is no difference. The difference between revised figure for 23/24 of 3.26mb and projected for 24/25 of 3.25mb is 10kb or 0.31 percent reduction - the level of input data does not support the level of preciseness :). If to take figure from the table, it will be 2kb reduction :) :) :) :) :). It's not a big deal but shows how USDA sometimes looks at the data :). In a simple way, from USDA unrevised 3.435mb of 23/24 to 3.258mb (POST) projected, for 24/25 reduction is about 5% or 177kb. :) :) :)

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Nusret Cetinkaya 3 hours ago

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bro I see you bring us alot of bullish indicators but it still goes down, idk where is the problem

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Kenan Hajdari 1 hour ago

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Abundance

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Nusret Cetinkaya 7 hours ago

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why is this sudden big drop

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Kenan Hajdari 16 hours ago

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Non-Commercial Speculative sector is in possesion of almost 12.3 million bags. And some people say there is no coffee.

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Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago

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There is a video, made by mimoagro about 2 months ago or so (Mimoso do Sul, ES), subject - complain about possible reduction, based on Sun and Temp. (Café Conilon - Quebra de safra em 2024 no Espírito Santo.) The farm which is used in the presentation has irrigation. Video is illustrative as it shows why the effect is different depending on the tree/branch, etc. It is hard to believe that ALL is conspiracy :). Result is impossible to declare until post-harvest, but some reduction seems reasonable... As example only, info about possible reduction in ES started spreading from 2023... The one should not fool himself with 30% :) but some percentage seems reasonable. If somehow some reduction will be declared and referred to sun/temp, how other origins that suffered same issues (some possibly to higher extent) can avoid it ? Seems hard to believe...

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Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago

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Video Mimoso do Sul was illustrative in a way that watcher is seeing green trees and still the guy complaining and explaining the basis for his worries :). Roughly, 2021 reduction on drought may be considered as 6mb or a bit more, but it is not known which percentage of it was caused by smaller beans and which - of lost crop. (If to consider would be no issues OFF 2021 as 42mb of A and 2021 as 36mb, 6mb fall on drought this or that way.)

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Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago

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As of Jan 31, Mexico, Conagua: (The problem is exacerbated because 61.59% of the Mexican territory presents moderate to exceptional drought, indicates the latest report from the National Water Commission (Conagua), which in the southern border region, where Chiapas is, reports a 50% .7% 'abnormally dry' surface, 22.9% with moderate drought and 8% with severe drought.) Add to drought (from place to place, not every first farm) high temps. Can Chiapas show increase ? Hardly :). Besides, as it was seen with Brazil, effect may last not just one year and so, 2025 may underproduce...

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Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago

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Vietnam export got smaller in April, to 2.5mb and -24% YOY and 18.4% MOM. Export fell in March after 4 consecutive months of good export (above average).

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Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago

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Update from the weather guy I follow: Besides equatorial Pacific and several other areas, above average temperatures are predicted worldwide from June to August. Hotter summer for many parts of NH, humidity levels above normal. Active hurricane season and above normal rainfall in India, China, Japan but below normal rainfall in Philippines and parts of SA.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 10, 2024 7:27PM ET

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Though not in the green :) but we got weekly close over 200 :).

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Viriato Magalhaes May 10, 2024 7:27PM ET

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Also worth noting: 1) how many contracts specs close on the move from 245 to 192 (basis June); 2) lots of pics of trees from different origins that circulate in the internet do not actually show very high degree of damage, not comparable with the pics that have been circulating after one of a kind :) drought in Brazil; 3) rains start coming to some areas and eventually all areas will get it, sooner or later. On the other side, 5% of could be :) :) :) (nobody knows !) reduction of all main origins without Brazil would make about 3mb. May will bring the first clarity to ALL !

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Nikolay Borisov May 10, 2024 11:53AM ET

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a good weekly rejected down movement Candle ! Daily targets Up are: 213 and 228, 247 ...

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Nikolay Borisov May 10, 2024 11:53AM ET

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No matter, up or down Must retest 212-215 area !!!

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Alpha Centauri May 10, 2024 4:19AM ET

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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in a post on X wrote, “at least five earth-directed coronial mass ejection (CME) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday May 12."

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Viriato Magalhaes May 10, 2024 4:19AM ET

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May mean the peak for current solar cycle 25 :).

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 10:35PM ET

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Here we go, from cccmg.com.br : Coffee in Mexico: Drought hits the south of the country and producers expect a drop of up to 30%. In Mexico, the driest weather since January raises major concerns for the current cycle. According to information from the local press, many producers estimate a drop of up to 30%. The data is part of the report by the Union of Independent Coffee Producers of Mexico, which warned that the lack of rain is already putting at least 80% of coffee plantations at risk, especially those located in the south of the state.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 10:35PM ET

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CCCMG (Centro do Comercio de Cafe do Estado de Minas Gerais) within last couple of weeks told its readers that: 1) ES production may drop 30%; 2) Problems in Vietnam may affect the crop; 3) Mexico can drop 30%; 4) Colombia faces higher broca infestation; 5) World consumption reached 177mb; 6) Extreme heat could compromise crop in SP; 7) Brazilian export is outstanding... Main readers are coffee farmers and interconnected people I assume... :) :) :) :) :) :)

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ShortDude May 09, 2024 10:35PM ET

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I am not a botanist or an expert on bees, and perhaps in Vietnam they are more thermophilic. Over the next 3 days we have predicted heat of 38C in the coffee growing areas of Vietnam. And no rain.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 10:35PM ET

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Endless record heat in 100% of tropical countries. Over 100 countries broke their heat records in first 8 days of May (May vs May, absolute). Degree of anomaly is high. (W-guys say unprecedented...)

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 10:35PM ET

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Citation: Mexico is living by far the worst heat wave in its history (of observations !!!). (It's a general comment, not related to farms areas, but it gives a sense of what's going on. Not in a way that everything will die (it will not!), but in a way that absence of growth or at least small reduction in production seems reasonable to assume...)

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 10:35PM ET

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In more than dozen of states in Mexico temp of 45C and higher were recorded, somewhere it hit over 49C... Temp map of Mexico was impressive recently, including coffee producing states.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 3:14PM ET

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:) :) :) Maja posted re heat wave in Mexico just now. Info about high temps and dry spells :) is/was confirmed by the stations (as it goes for some time already), but who knows re specific areas where the farms are :) ? She is based in Mexico for years. She promised (on Twitter) to make a trip to inspect few locations herself about now. USDA should post Mexico report in May/June. We'll see the diff :) :) :) !

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 3:14PM ET

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Couldn't resist and checked GAIN calendar. Following reports scheduled for May 2024: India (out), Philippines, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam, Honduras. Somehow I was not paying close attention to Peru and Honduras, all other mentioned origins had some weather issues. If GAIN will really make it all in May :), clarity will be out before first frost fear . :)

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Viriato Magalhaes May 09, 2024 3:14PM ET

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Re Maja and Mexico. One of the picture Maja posted in relation to drought in Mexico is a pic from the article in local media, dated April 25th. Mexico was having dry spells/high temps for a while...

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Mercury KG May 09, 2024 2:15PM ET

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El Salvador produced 3 million bags 20 years ago. Since then it has been going downhill. Truly pathetic lack of Ministry of Agriculture support. In the last 5 years, 5 ministers.

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joaquin cafe May 09, 2024 2:15PM ET

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Agriculture support???We have global problems (how a human being could do something about)

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BIG John May 09, 2024 9:25AM ET

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Opening GAP closed - could very well turn out to be support and rebound level.

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Roberto Tavelli May 09, 2024 9:25AM ET

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Yesterday closed at 197,55

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