US Small Cap 2000 (RUT)

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Never fails to amaze me how this index gets f’d with and the others just keep going up.

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Timothy Technography 20 hours ago

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Russell projected to move lower tomorrow, but higher overall on Friday (All 3 daily RUT PPMs point projected to point up on Friday, whereas tomorrow shows 2 PPMs point down, 1 up, and 3-hour PPMs point to selling momentum into Friday morning.) As I mentioned yesterday late session, expect a lower low in second half of this week, particularly a weak Thursday, possibly early Friday. While the rally may resume as soon as Friday, be aware there are falling PPMs* on daily chart off and on through June 5th, so worst case we go sideways to down until then, with a rally until around June 12. SPX looks a bit more constructive on May 30 than RUT, which looks like a nicely green day, presumably money mgr. 'window dressing' at EOM b/c 31st also good but starts to fade into early June before the real rally ensues, if only for a week. *(WaveTech proprietary price pressure momentum metrics, tied to probability of that 10, 21, and 40-period moving avg. provides support or resistance)

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Christopher Cooper 4 hours ago

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Thanks TT. Any update on Hang Seng. It’s been beaten down over the last week which was expected after the rapid runup.

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Timothy Technography 1 hour ago

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Hey CC. I just looked at index HSI and ETF FXI, and pattern has changed. It's confusing with WaveTech b/c the daily is quite bearish, particularly till June 3, then a modest bounce, then lower. But WaveTech projections aren't that reliable more than a few to several periods out on any interval chart. So when I look at daily, to get a sense of next few to several periods (weeks in this case), it shows this week down, the first one to really point down clearly, then modest move up next week, modest move down the following week, which I bet relates to the daily pointing down into June 3, and after that down week, a rally from week of June 11 through 1st week of July, then a significant decline. Remind me to check back in a couple weeks b/c these projections tend to change over time based on new input data. I tend to trust the weekly chart more so think there's more choppy consolidation until we get past June 3rd or so, though not nearly as bad as daily suggests, and then it improves. There's not 150 months of historical data on Heng Seng for a monthly chart projection, but I was curious about gold b/c it's been on a tear, and WaveTech can produce a Monthly for GC, gold futures, and it shows a solid uptrend from March through June (starting earlier, but not so robustly), and then a pivot in July, so probably higher early in July, then down, but I'd need to look at weekly once we get into June to clarify that. Overall the 10-month MA for GC moves higher for the next year and a half, but not nearly as steeply starting next Jan., so there are definite sideways to down months interspersed, as we'd expect. Crude Oil (CL) monthly peaked earlier this year and weekly momentum is bearish, so I own SCO shares for past month or so, bought more this week, and the monthly shows 10-month MA, near $80/barrel today, moving through the $70s into the $60s back towards a healthier price balance between demand and producer profits. Oil's been falling since within a few months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, just like what happened to oil after OPEC oil embargo in mid 1970s and Persian Gulf War in early 1990s. Price tends to peak 2-3 months after that supply shock, then lower.

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Christopher Cooper 47 minutes ago

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Dumped my YINN since it looks bleak near term and all in TNA now

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Narendra Kumar May 21, 2024 10:18PM ET

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Indian morket 9.15

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Timothy Technography May 21, 2024 11:48AM ET

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As of 11:40 AM EST, WaveTech indicates a decline coming in early afternoon. The next couple days are more of this sideways consolidation after big gains this month, followed by going higher around Friday, more consolidation and going higher still. WaveTech continues to project RUT's 10-day moving avg. to be in uptrend till mid June,

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Timothy Technography May 21, 2024 11:48AM ET

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Today started a little worse than expected and ended a little better than expected. Intraday and daily charts indicate sideways with slight bias to the downside for some days, with latter part of Thursday and earlier part of Friday indicating more weakness, probably a lower low intraweek. Daily chart overall bullish but looks more like sideways trading range for a few to several sessions. Sorry the details of today proved wrong. It happens and is why it's more important to focus on the multi week patterns than intraweek or intraday, but intraday can be important pivots.

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Maria Kenny May 16, 2024 3:16PM ET

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JPM sees the yield going higher through the summer months.

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Timothy Technography May 16, 2024 3:16PM ET

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WaveTech sees Treasury yields falling overall which aligns with what Fed has said and economic indicators suggest based on trends. There's a reason we don't keep our money with JPM.

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Maria Kenny May 16, 2024 3:14PM ET

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don't buy the yield is too high & unemployment is going up

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Christopher Cooper May 16, 2024 3:14PM ET

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If you haven’t noticed, the strong labor market is the biggest contrubutor to inflation, so higher unemployment could help contribute to rate cuts and lower yields.

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Timothy Technography May 16, 2024 3:14PM ET

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Exactly CC. The whole point of raising interest rates is to reduce inflation, and that requires going from the lowest unemployment rate since 1960s to a more natural rate around 4%. Meanwhile inflation is falling, but it's not going to hit 2%, which was only a valid inflation target during the disinflationary between GFC and COVID-19. The new normal inflation and interest rates will be more like where they were the three decades before that, due to deglobalization of supply chains, national self reliance of industry for national security, global transport costs rising due to the two busiest canals, Suez and Panama, no longer available due to Houthi Rebels and multiple years drought over Panama's lakes from El Nino or climate change patterns, and Baby Boomers retiring, so smaller workforce and tighter labor market, which is actually good for labor. The reason the lower and middle class have suffered while those of us earning well into the 6- and 7-figures have not is b/c the business and government prioritized the interests of business owners over the workers since 1980s, but that is changing in the new normal. Small caps are able to adapt, but they must be able to operate with less debt and better cash flows. So this long term secular trend will shake out the meme stocks and other poorly operated businesses.

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Timothy Technography May 16, 2024 9:56AM ET

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As I noted here on May 10, the trend is higher, as WaveTech anticipates market reactions and gets it right most of the time (about 75-80% on big days like CPI/PCE/GDP/jobs/FOMC). Daily RUT chart indicated uptrend through Wed. and some consolidation starting today sideways up and down but biased to downside. This continues overall into Monday at least, quite possibly second half of next week based on 3- and 4-hour interval charts (which aren't as reliable at looking more than 2-3 sessions out but are helpful at identifying cyclical waves over couple/few days). There also appears to be a bounce tomorrow morning if the 3-hour chart is correct, but it indicates a fade over Fri. afternoon and lower Monday. The more powerful daily RUT PPMs are projected to keep price and the 10-day moving average (10-DMA) moving higher through end of May, then some consolidation in days near Memorial Weekend, and then higher through mid June. Projections that far out on daily aren't as reliable, but monthly chart shows rally over May and June, just as it forecasted a bearish April that was a corrective phase from bullish Q4-Q1. So buy the dip around this weekend.

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HyborianWar May 15, 2024 8:06PM ET

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going way higher sooner then later

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hassan ibrahim May 14, 2024 10:47AM ET

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Still believe that russel has the most updide potential

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Timothy Technography May 14, 2024 10:47AM ET

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It certainly corrected the most in April.

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hassan ibrahim May 14, 2024 10:46AM ET

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Buy the dips and fo not look back

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TechTrend Trades May 14, 2024 10:46AM ET

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not a good idea until Friday or.next week Monday

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