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Grain futures - Weekly outlook: October 31-November 4

Published 10/30/2011, 10:33 AM
Investing.com – Corn and wheat futures rose on Friday, amid worries that adverse weather in key grain growing states in the U.S. will threaten output, while soybean futures slumped after crop conditions in South America improved. 

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn futures for December delivery traded at USD6.5562 per bushel by close of trade on Friday, climbing 1.33% over the week, the fourth consecutive weekly gain.

The U.S. National Weather Service said Friday that it expected colder-than-normal weather across most parts of the U.S. Midwest in the next six to ten days, while adding that some areas could see “strong, damaging winds and large hail”.

Agricultural traders pay close attention to the weather because farmers need favorable conditions to grow large crops to replenish low inventories. Cold temperatures in the major corn growing states can potentially threaten yields and reduce the quality of the harvest.

Corn prices found further support after the U.S. Grains Council forecast that corn imports by South East Asian countries in the 2011-12 marketing season will hit a record 8 million metric tons, up 60% from three years ago, citing increased demand in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. corn exports to South East Asia reached 397,000 tonnes in the year to August, nearly 10 times the level of the same period last year.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat for December delivery jumped 2.25% over the week to settle at USD6.4650 a bushel on Friday, the third consecutive weekly gain.

Concerns over U.S. winter-wheat crop conditions underpinned prices, however gains were limited after Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat said it bought 120,000 metric tons of Russian wheat.

Wheat prices rallied nearly 4% on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened broadly after European leaders made a breakthrough in resolving the region’s two-year old debt crisis.

Meanwhile, soybeans for January delivery edged 0.52% higher on the week to settle at USD12.2650 a bushel by close of trade Friday. 

Soybean prices came under pressure Friday amid speculation that improving prospects for South American crops will cut demand for supplies from the U.S.

Industry weather group World Weather said that dry weather during the next seven days will accelerate planting in Argentina and Brazil, the world’s biggest exporters after the U.S.

USDA data showing that soybeans inspected for delivery at U.S. ports last week fell 43% from a year earlier to 41.15 million bushels also weighed. Total inspections since the start of the marketing year were 39% below a year earlier.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.


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