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UPDATE 2-Polish zloty moves not "dramatic"-c.bank, PM Tusk

Published 11/30/2010, 10:12 AM
Updated 11/30/2010, 10:16 AM
EUR/PLN
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* Belka sees zloty firming again after global turbulence

* Chojna-Duch says zloty undervalued, sees no rate hike

* Polish PM says recent zloty volatility not "dramatic"

(Adds PM Tusk, Fitch on zloty, detail)

WARSAW, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The head of Poland's central bank played down the recent weakness of the zloty currency on Tuesday, saying he expected the unit to resume its appreciation once calm returns to global markets.

The zloty lost about two percent of its value against the euro on Monday, extending previous losses as investors fled assets perceived as more risky amid concerns over euro zone contagion from Ireland's debt crisis.

The Polish unit traded at about 4.06 against the euro at 1415 GMT, firmer than its previous day's close.

"Fluctuations in the zloty's exchange rate are not dramatic," central bank governor Marek Belka told RMF FM radio.

"The zloty will strengthen (again). When the global market turbulence related to Ireland ends, it will return to its appreciation trend," he said.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk echoed Belka by saying the recent zloty moves were not "dramatic". He was, however, slightly less optimistic than Belka because he said he expected further volatility over the winter months.

"Unfortunately it seems like this winter will be interesting, not only in Poland... The possibilities to influence the currency from here are relatively small. I hope there won't be a need for such verbal-political moves as two years ago," Tusk told a news conference.

"Today we have a different and better situation than in 2008 when it comes to the stability of the Polish zloty. For now, the zloty's movements aren't dramatic. There will be more volatility this winter but we should emerge from this unharmed."

The zloty fell sharply during the global financial crisis, almost touching an all-time low of about 4.93 against the euro and prompting the PM to intervene verbally in early 2009 to help stop the currency's falls.

Before the latest market turbulence hit, the Polish unit had been appreciating and this fact encouraged the central bank last week to keep its main interest rate on hold at an all-time low of 3.5 percent.

It is supported by strong domestic growth -- Poland is the only country in Europe to have avoided a contraction in the crisis -- though there are concerns Warsaw is not doing enough to bring down a budget deficit that has jumped to almost 8 percent of GDP.

POTENTIAL

MPC member Elzbieta Chojna-Duch told TVN CNBC late on Monday that December would also not be a good moment to raise interest rates. Most analysts now expect the first interest rate increase in Poland to come in the first quarter of 2011.

Chojna-Duch also said she thought the zloty was currently undervalued and would "certainly firm back to a level below 4 (to the euro)".

Her comments stand in line with the governor, who said last week that he saw "great" potential for the zloty to appreciate, possibly by more than 10 percent.

Analysts said the central bank's expectation that the zloty would gain down the road meant that policymakers did not see an immediate need to raise borrowing costs. The bank is seen raising rates in the first months of 2011.

Also Fitch Ratings Agency, which has recently warned Poland should tighten its grip on public finances to avoid pressures on its rating, expects, in its base scenario, that the zloty would gain.

The unit may strengthen by 1 percent per annum in the medium term, Fitch analyst David Heslam told a teleconference. (Reporting by Patryk Wasilewski and Adrian Krajewski, writing by Gareth Jones and Karolina Slowikowska; editing by Patrick Graham)

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