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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Dec 24 (KCc4)

ICE
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
198.55
0.00(0.00%)
Delayed Data

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Viriato the prices really are not as good as Mario would say. The exchange rate in the producing countries must be taken into account. In the case of Colombia, COP has appreciated a lot against the USD, so the internal price that producers receive is very low and more serious with discounts due to low quality.
Agricultural News: "Logistics and climate crisis affecting all origins, Brazil expands coffee sales to producing countries Vietnam increased its purchases by more than 200%, while in Mexico the volume exceeded 800%"
Consumption growth in Mexico was about 5%, CAGR till 2027/28 was projected about 5.9%, consumption started slowly moving toward outdoor consumption but still main product is soluble. :)
El Salvador, USDA, May 14, 2024: 1) El Salvador's coffee production is expected to reach 555,000 sixty-kg-bags in marketing year (MY) 2023/24. The Salvadoran coffee sector continues to be affected by climate vulnerability and an absent long-term strategy. The MY2024/25 crop is forecast to reach 560,000 sixty-kg-bags. Lack of labor availability due to migration in rural areas is affecting farm activities such as pruning, tree renovations, and berry picking and processing. In addition, prices for inputs remain high, increasing production costs.
2) area - flat, trees - flat, production for 23/24, estimated by USDA was 670kb , POST revision - 555kb, revision of 115kb or 17% !!!; POST projection for 24/25 - 560kb :) :) :) (5kb or 0.9% - nonsense projection). Thus, from USDA 670kb for 23/24 to 555kb projected reduction is 115kb or 17%. (If to consider that 23/24 was 555kb, then last 2 seasons 22/23, 23/24 and projected 24/25 are flat :) ).
El Salvador does not play a major role, but percentage is what is important. Initial USDA projection went out to be revised for -17%.
why rocket up now? This commodity surprises me with tht much daily votality
3% daily is nothing special with coffee.
USDA, May 10th Guatemala: Post forecasts that production in MY 2024/2025 will slightly decrease to 3.25 million 60-kg bags, down from the MY2023/2024 estimate of 3.26 million 60-kg bags. Production for MY2022/2023 closed at 3.26 million 60-kg bags but has been revised down 6 percent from previous Post estimate. The reduction in the estimate is due to various factors, with the extended El Niño year being one of the main factors negatively impacting the 2023/2024 harvest. Although it has been a relatively dry harvest season, rust is present in farms that are not well managed. The coffee borer continues to be an important pest as mature coffee falls to the ground and cannot be harvested given the permanent lack of labor (migration driven) affecting Guatemalan agriculture.
As MGom would say, current prices historically are very good for both, A and R, and for sure many producers did and will do their best to capitalize on it. Ferts calmed down, etc - there are some real incentives there... But 35 - 40C temp is still a factor... In my view, the one who is cyclically bullish (as myself) should not fool himself with 30%, etc devastating numbers... but to pay attention to a macro picture, besides Brazil...
You're right Bruno. If the damage has already been done, the rains will not solve it. The rains will only help the leaves recover and absorb nutrients to prepare for the next harvest.
Tropical paradigm is needed :) in this season indeed ! :) Because otherwise a total picture of 23/24 will look kinda nervous, including Brazil. (Consumption in El Salvador grew for 8% recently :), about 88% of Salvadorians drink coffee on a daily basis, on flat production. )
why is this sudden big drop
Non-Commercial Speculative sector is in possesion of almost 12.3 million bags. And some people say there is no coffee.
As of Jan 31, Mexico, Conagua: (The problem is exacerbated because 61.59% of the Mexican territory presents moderate to exceptional drought, indicates the latest report from the National Water Commission (Conagua), which in the southern border region, where Chiapas is, reports a 50% .7% 'abnormally dry' surface, 22.9% with moderate drought and 8% with severe drought.) Add to drought (from place to place, not every first farm) high temps. Can Chiapas show increase ? Hardly :). Besides, as it was seen with Brazil, effect may last not just one year and so, 2025 may underproduce...
Vietnam export got smaller in April, to 2.5mb and -24% YOY and 18.4% MOM. Export fell in March after 4 consecutive months of good export (above average).
Update from the weather guy I follow: Besides equatorial Pacific and several other areas, above average temperatures are predicted worldwide from June to August. Hotter summer for many parts of NH, humidity levels above normal. Active hurricane season and above normal rainfall in India, China, Japan but below normal rainfall in Philippines and parts of SA.
Though not in the green :) but we got weekly close over 200 :).
Also worth noting: 1) how many contracts specs close on the move from 245 to 192 (basis June); 2) lots of pics of trees from different origins that circulate in the internet do not actually show very high degree of damage, not comparable with the pics that have been circulating after one of a kind :) drought in Brazil; 3) rains start coming to some areas and eventually all areas will get it, sooner or later. On the other side, 5% of could be :) :) :) (nobody knows !) reduction of all main origins without Brazil would make about 3mb. May will bring the first clarity to ALL !
a good weekly rejected down movement Candle ! Daily targets Up are: 213 and 228, 247 ...
No matter, up or down Must retest 212-215 area !!!
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in a post on X wrote, “at least five earth-directed coronial mass ejection (CME) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday May 12."
May mean the peak for current solar cycle 25 :).
Here we go, from cccmg.com.br : Coffee in Mexico: Drought hits the south of the country and producers expect a drop of up to 30%. In Mexico, the driest weather since January raises major concerns for the current cycle. According to information from the local press, many producers estimate a drop of up to 30%. The data is part of the report by the Union of Independent Coffee Producers of Mexico, which warned that the lack of rain is already putting at least 80% of coffee plantations at risk, especially those located in the south of the state.
Endless record heat in 100% of tropical countries. Over 100 countries broke their heat records in first 8 days of May (May vs May, absolute). Degree of anomaly is high. (W-guys say unprecedented...)
Citation: Mexico is living by far the worst heat wave in its history (of observations !!!). (It's a general comment, not related to farms areas, but it gives a sense of what's going on. Not in a way that everything will die (it will not!), but in a way that absence of growth or at least small reduction in production seems reasonable to assume...)
In more than dozen of states in Mexico temp of 45C and higher were recorded, somewhere it hit over 49C... Temp map of Mexico was impressive recently, including coffee producing states.
:) :) :) Maja posted re heat wave in Mexico just now. Info about high temps and dry spells :) is/was confirmed by the stations (as it goes for some time already), but who knows re specific areas where the farms are :) ? She is based in Mexico for years. She promised (on Twitter) to make a trip to inspect few locations herself about now. USDA should post Mexico report in May/June. We'll see the diff :) :) :) !
Couldn't resist and checked GAIN calendar. Following reports scheduled for May 2024: India (out), Philippines, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam, Honduras. Somehow I was not paying close attention to Peru and Honduras, all other mentioned origins had some weather issues. If GAIN will really make it all in May :), clarity will be out before first frost fear . :)
Re Maja and Mexico. One of the picture Maja posted in relation to drought in Mexico is a pic from the article in local media, dated April 25th. Mexico was having dry spells/high temps for a while...
El Salvador produced 3 million bags 20 years ago. Since then it has been going downhill. Truly pathetic lack of Ministry of Agriculture support. In the last 5 years, 5 ministers.
Agriculture support???We have global problems (how a human being could do something about)
Opening GAP closed - could very well turn out to be support and rebound level.
Yesterday closed at 197,55
From Maja, is this really true? World #coffee production is stagnated except for handful of origins causing growing BIG trouble to #KC with ICO stats confirming; Ivory Coast, from 6.32M to 1.9M - Angola, from 5M to 52K bags - Colombia, from 18M to 10.5M - Mexico, from 6.2M to 4M - El Salvador, from 3M to 600K - Costa Rica, from 3M bags to 1.4M - Thailand, from 1.7M to 500K - Cameroon, from 1.7M to 268K - Ecuador, from 2.4M Bags to 550K - Guatemala, from 5.1M to 3.4M - Congo, Dem Rep, from 1.6M to 350K - Kenya, from 1.7M to 650K
Finally USDA
USDA is most followed and I'm not a lone ranger :). But USDA does not hesitate to make serious revisions years back (was doing always) what points to the fact that their methodology is not 100% perfect (nobody's is :)) and in some cases to some extent may be questionable, or let's say may be :) viewed with a possible rate of mistake. Part of their mandate is do not blow up the markets, so it is very understandable...
MGom. If you wouldn't mind to comment, what your sources are saying re possible drop in ES ?
Friday 180 ?
?????
lol
why?
Someone took some coffee from ICE ;)
This is what Rodrigo and previously several times Oscar were referring to... 6% infestation is a high index value, 6% correlates well with previous strong El Nino, nothing devastating and out of the range. So, it turns out, Oscar was not kidding :) :) :)...
From Cenicafe: Colombia is preparing for an attempt to recover Arabica production, but some problems still pose challenges for the country ahead. According to data released by the National Coffee Research Center (Cenicafé), the work shows a worrying borer infestation. The problem began to be observed in January this year. According to the data, the percentage of drill bits is above 2% in all production areas, with the exception of Quindío and Nariño. According to the local press, the National Coffee Federation even issued an alert for urgent action in the most affected areas, with levels exceeding 5%.
Viriato, borer damage of 2% is very low. In Central America, way higher, up to 20%. Total lack of control.
ICO report (covering March), open sources: 1) Global green bean exports in March 2024 totalled 11.87 million bags, as compared with 10.85 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 9.4%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to March is 62.64 million bags, as compared with 56.36 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 11.1%. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas were the two main groups responsible for the overall strong growth observed in March 2024, together accounting for 91.5% of the 1.02-million-bag net gain in total exports. This further consolidated their already-dominant positions, increasing their combined share of the total exports to 72.5% in March 2024 as compared to 70.8% in March 2023. For the year to date, the combined share is an even higher 73.4%.
By USDA world coffee consumption in 2014 was roughly 142mb. By USDA world coffee consumption in 2023 was roughly 170mb, it would be in 2024 172mb-173mb, what gives 30mb or 3mb average annual increase in global consumption considered by ... USDA. Well, long term trends are often stubborn things :) :) :).
Brazil saves the world.
So whats the price prediction you mates have
Good opportunities to make long positions it seems.
Wait for Friday
lol
Ostrich flight ?
is it possible to see the prices goes to 180 in coming days?
Rather focus on 150 next week, in 15 days max
only stoch might look that way, others solo or combined are opposite, i take the bet mate, whats the deal then? xD
I think so
If hold above 194 better buy, damaged in Vietman is already made, it may rain a lot know it will not change nothing, here in Brazil new crop is getting in the market with smal amount of screan 17/18 it may show a break in the numbers
Observing couple of farms in Vietnam during her trip, Judy Ganes said that in relation to the level of infestation, she's more concerned with the bug than upcoming rain :).
Drought aside: Conilon coffee plants did not present damage to the photochemical apparatus until they were exposed to 30-37ºC in the long term (Rodrigues et al., 2016b), mainly due to the increase of enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant compounds and by means of protein activity (Martins et al., 2016). On the other hand, it was observed by DaMatta et al., (2012, 2018) that high temperatures can compromise both the fruit set and development, which can result in premature ripening, etc. Every farm is different but the tree is still the tree.
Rodrigo, some African origins do not really use ferts and chemicals :). They manage it somehow and even grow production, but imagine, if some real attack (of a scale or new variety) will happen one day ?
is the 150 in 15 days bet still alive?
Sam Houston, the self claimed guru started getting long at 195...soon he will cry
You're stupid, where were you at 240
what did I self claim? I longed KC at 195? maybe ur confused?
Rain, rain and rain....anywhere with coffee plants, always miraculous
Higher mealybug infestation is one of indicators. 200 level is very important level from many standpoints and consolidation around it is/would be nothing strange. What should/may bring the market down to 100 besides some political/etc issues ? News about record global crop and big stocks at the destinations. It is more than hard :) to see a record global crop in current circumstances... And if to rely on GSM progression, the way it was known from the last similar cycle, it just started, main weather issues should be ahead... Average size of coffee farm in Vietnam is about 2ha, those farms still influence main production. Different management and approach vs 200ha Brazilian irrigated mechanized farm.
Yesterday it was +39C in Bangalore, wave continues through Oceania and Asia, etc. Porto Alegre recently recorded 33.3C, it was second highest for May within last 115 years or so... Porto Alegre is not about coffee but it underlines the degree of anomalies... Anomalies everywhere and always mean only one thing: higher potential risk, not lower :). CA, Mexico, etc... Whatever way the one looks at the stations data, it is not like big damage is seen, but hardly a higher production or record crop :). USDA last report on India, in my view, was a good example. India is 5th R producer. A was conservatively considered :) being less immune to the stress. :) Also, the one should not fool himself: lots of origins are not that advances in terms of cultivars (resistance, yield ) as Brazil is, not yet :) :) :).
The trade is based on the fact that if not in this year but then in next Brazil will always save the market somehow. We'll see :) :) :) if this concept works no matter what or not so in current cycle :) :) :).
reversal day
im so short!!
Tomorrow another -5% any opinion ?
...
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