SGX Nikkei 225 Futures - Sep 24

With Japan's economy in the trash bin that seems an unlikely proposition.

I would argue instead that it will keep on sinking. And that in the minds of those who can scarcely afford losses a voice will prod them into selling. That will very slowly gain momentum, and then you will see reality take hold. It will be the kind of thing that will sneak up and take itself by surprise.

But who knows?!

that will happens only if Japan betray his big brother US..

I dunno my man! Central banks have convinced the world over that nothing matters anymore. Buy on good news, buy on bad news, buy on good fundamentals, buy on bad ones, buy on nothing at all. Buy because you can! Just buy! And this while you can get far fatter and far safer returns on treasuries or otherwise, and with zero risk. It's a world gone mad!

I have lost my mojo. Years and years of trying to learn such things as everything about all kinds of things and I am lost. Learning things about markets, fundamentals, economics, balance sheets, finance, behavioral economics, value investing and such have all proven to be a huge exercise in futility. These central bankers and fiscal spending quacks wave their magic wands, hurt their countries' future prospects badly, droves of people with no understanding just pile in, and everyone thinks the story is going to end well. There is no accountability anymore and nobody cares one iota about the future. I am done with investing and markets and sorry I ever invested a single red penny in any of them. I am fed up and moving on with my life. Good bye to you and my fellow posters on this forum and goodbye to markets forever.

U no need worry chucky. U are a paper trader. Talk only

When down you say sell, now going up u say buy 😅

Oh so you arent happy?! I get downvoted by the truckload when I am bearish but correct! And now you think I'm bullish but think it wonderful to you criticize me yet again! I appear bullish and the market's going up? Criticize more! Ha ha. Honestly, I can be a real cynic. Sometimes I'm trying to understand things making no sense. To me the only way to understand this market is to acknowledge that it is not rational in any sense of the word. But it is like the US now. That is that valuation really does not matter. Fundamentals do not at all matter. That it is a bubble does not matter. Buyers are in the grip of a nonsensical m a n i a and that is all there is to it. In summary, I am still bearish. This market is going to tank and tank hard at some point. The fact that today's numbers were awful and tech valuations are nuts and yet the market is going up is a testament to m a d n e s s. But m a d n e s s can only last so long.

so* you

The Ministry of Finance in Japan very likely did intervene in currency markets, twice but not today. The pushed the dollar/yen down from about 160 or so to about 152. As for why this index is flat or down, and why there are often waterfall drops? I suspect that people are dissatified that the BOJ is no longer buying ETFs every time this drops a couple percent or whatever it was they were doing. And quite honestly, if I were at the BOJ I would be hoping the BOJ sells all of its ETFs and as quickly as possible. Just my opinion. Good luck with your 3x leverage buys.

They*

If I were you, Sohai Cat, this is what I would do. I would go to the library and get a book called Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow by Ludwig Von Mises. Thsi book is one written by Ludwig von Mises, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century. Published in 1979, it provides a concise and accessible overview of Mises' economic theories and addresses various policy issues. In this book Mises presents a comprehensive analysis of economic principles and their application to real-world policy decisions. He emphasizes the importance of economic freedom, individual property rights, and the market system as essential components of a prosperous society. Mises argues that government intervention in the economy, such as price controls, subsidies, and regulations, often leads to unintended consequences and economic distortions. The book covers a wide range of topics, including money and inflation, business cycles, international trade, socialism, and the role of government in the economy. Mises uses clear and logical reasoning to explain complex economic concepts, making the book accessible to readers who may not have an extensive background in economics. Throughout "Economic Policy," Mises warns against the dangers of disregarding economic principles in favor of short-term political expediency. He advocates for sound monetary policies, free trade, and the importance of entrepreneurship in fostering economic growth and prosperity. While Mises' economic views are often associated with the Austrian School of economics, this book presents his ideas in a broader context, aiming to provide practical insights into economic policy-making. "Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow" serves as a valuable resource for those interested in understanding Mises' economic perspective and its implications for policy decisions in the modern world.

As for why, Sohai Cat, I recommend this book, here is why: When Covid hit, central bankers and governments overreacted. They pumped all kinds of free money into the global economy. As a result, they created false demand for goods and services that resulted in inflation. This is because they pushed demand forward and by a very large margin. As a result, profits spiked up and at least some businesses overreacted and overexpanded and misread the boom as one that will be permanent. Investors did the same. In the aftermath of this overreaction there was a need to counteract this boom with a downswing, but governments and central banks afraid of this downswing, which is just a natural part of any business cycle, again reacted. The US government, for example, increased its spending to wartime levels of spending. As a result, this natural downswing part of the business cycle was disallowed from playing out. In Japan, also, the government flooded the system with massive levels of liquidity and abnormally low rates, which it has done for decades, pushing more and more money into asset prices globally. Together such factors created a cocktail of another false stimulus, again pushing forward growth and adding air to the bubbles. And this is where we are today. This problem, coincidentally, has been compounded by people who never invested before flocking to markets and discovering what they think is markets that only go up. So there you have it. Good luck to you but this kind of thing has happened before. It ended with one of the most massive crashes in history in 1929, when the market later bottomed after having lost 90% of its value.

In the end, Sohai Cat, it's your money. If you feel you must leverage up and buy as many stocks as you can and dont worry about it. Nobody knows when and if markets will crash. It could be next month or next year or ten years from now for all I know. This I do know though, if you have no patience, and like most, want everything here and now and this minute, and you want markets to do what you think they will, then markets are no place for you. You are better off in treasury bonds. And if that is not good enough for you then bury your money in a trunk in your back yard or put it in your mattress for all I care. But good luck to you whatever you decide. Like I said. It is your money.

YTD chart Nikkei is still a out performed HSI with +14.44% while HSI after recent rally YTD is only +11.16%... and if you zoom till last year chart, Nikkei is more upside than HSI which I believe many had bought since then... there is no need to argue whether it should drop or rise, everyone enter market only have one goal thats to make money.. we retailers only tag along with the big boys to make money, when the trend going up, we LONG, trend down, we PUT..

we all know bull bear both can make money, while only pig got slaughter...

What I am talking to is the fundamentals. And all I am saying is the Hang Seng, relative to valuation, is selling at about half the price of the Nikkei. That is, if you are interested in taking a long term view, the Hang Seng is a much much better value for your money. On a relative basis, if you buy the Hang Seng relative to value, you are paying about half of what you would for the Nikkei. As for performance of both indexes, research shows that from a technical perspective, reversion to the mean strategies usually do better long term than trend following. But let's just watch and see.

you should show the longer period chart.. Nikkei and US market rose before Hang Seng..Funds already making huge profits and now they are trying to exit.. Hang Seng or Chinese stocks are cheap now, that's why funds is switching..

by the way, Hang Seng index just breakout the major downtrend, that's why recent FOMO making it 90deg shoot up which is not very healthy also.. correction need to be done in order rise more healthily and sustainable rise..

The reason the Hang Seng is rising in a sustainable way is for many reasons, but mainly because it was very vey cheap, the exact opposite of Japan. And in time both will revert to the mean on a valuation basis. The Hang Seng will rise as irrational fear drops away and the Nikkei will fall as irrational euphoria drops away.

I have misled no one. The numbers are all there. Euphoria and animal spirits have driven this rally. The number do not add up. If GDP had risen you might have a case, but you dont. Also, as explained below, very high ratios of debt to GDP hinder GDP growth. Japan's level of debt to GDP is extremely high, hence expecting it to suddenly break out of its three plus decade long flat GDP level is silly. Hence, higher stock prices out of the usual range, as now, is not rational: Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Research has shown that when a country's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds a certain threshold (often estimated around 90% to 100%), it can have a detrimental effect on economic growth. As the debt burden increases, it can lead to reduced private investment, lower productivity, and hinder long-term economic expansion. Crowding Out Effect: High levels of government borrowing can crowd out private sector investment by increasing interest rates and reducing the availability of funds for businesses and individuals. This can dampen private sector activity, which is a crucial driver of GDP growth. Debt Servicing Costs: When a significant portion of government revenue is allocated towards servicing debt, it leaves fewer resources available for productive investments in areas such as infrastructure, education, and innovation. This can hinder long-term economic growth potential. Investor Confidence and Interest Rates: Excessive government debt can erode investor confidence in a country's ability to repay its obligations. This can lead to higher borrowing costs as investors demand higher interest rates on government bonds. The resulting increase in interest rates can negatively impact private sector borrowing costs and investment, thereby affecting GDP growth. Austerity Measures: In some cases, countries burdened with extreme government debt have resorted to austerity measures, such as tax increases and spending cuts, to regain fiscal stability. These measures often have a contractionary effect on the economy, leading to reduced consumer spending, lower business investment, and overall slower GDP growth.

In case you didnt know, Japan's debt to GDP level exceeds the 90 to 100% range the above passage points to, and by a lot. Japan's debt to GDP levels are in excess of 250% of GDP.

By the way. The idea that either you or I influence anyone is silly. Anyone who gets their info from a random person on a forum is a very silly person. Much as you or I might try to educate people they need to do the research themselves. And if they did they would know what is going to happen here.

senseless message*

Agree. Stop spamming the forum chucky.

It's a DEAD forum. Without me, there would be NO discussion here at all!